Fortune: The Job Market is Flashing a Classic Pattern That Signals a Recession is Coming, Citi Says
Article By Jason Ma in Fortune
The August jobs report marked an improvement from the prior month but failed to quell Wall Street's recession fears, even with the Federal Reserve poised to start cutting rates soon.
The U.S. economy added 142,000 jobs last month, falling short of forecasts, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%.
Private-sector hiring totaled 118,000, but the three-month moving average dropped below 100,000. According to Citi Research analysts led by chief U.S. economist Andrew Hollenhorst, that's the weakest three months for the private sector since 2012, excluding the pandemic.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has climbed by nearly a full percentage point from its low, he added in a note on Friday, pointing out that layoffs that were once seen as temporary have now been normalized.
"The takeaway from the range of labor market data is clear – the ......